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To follow up…
The wire that was loose was the neutral switch… Which makes perfect sense for the light being on once I grounded it.
After reading and rereading the service manual at least half a dozen times and more Google searching than I probably needed to do… I determined that the speed sensor was static at 4.95 volts.
For those wondering you can use the speed sensor off a Polaris sportsman 400. It just needs to be wired in (wrong connector and like 4 feet of extra wire). For $15 it was worth the risk… Vs the $200 for an OE victory sensor.
So now my bike runs great and other than the check engine light… Everything works as expected.